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Post-Demobilization of the FARC: Predictions for Colombia’s Future Crimescape Open Access Deposited

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Latin America’s oldest insurgency, is at a critical juncture. Following a historic peace agreement in 2016 that required the organization to demobilize, the country and the world are closely watching the degree to which former fighters abandon the insurgency and successfully integrate into society. The peace accord provides a number of incentives to facilitate the process, most recently beginning implementation of special amnesty courts for former FARC fighters. While passing the legislation establishing these courts was an important step, the Colombian government has otherwise been criticized for failing to develop a clear national strategy to assist the former fighters and their families in the integration process. This study uses an organizational model developed using both Michael Kenney’s research on the dismantling of the Medellin and Cali drug operations in the 1980s and the 1990s and the results of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) demobilization in 2006 to help predict the number of potential dissidents and recidivists. Additionally, current trends in criminal activities in Colombia following the signing of the peace accord in 2016 provide support for conclusions and predictions for the country’s future crimescape.

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