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Using the Results from Rigorous National Evaluations to Inform Local Education Policy Decisions Open Access

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Increasingly, local education policymakers have access to evidence from published reports based on randomized control trials (RCTs) to inform decisions about whether to adopt an educational intervention. A key question is how well the published results from a multi-site RCT predict the potential consequences of adopting an intervention for each of the many local schools or districts that may consider adopting it. This paper offers a set of methods for quantifying the accuracy of the local predictions that can be obtained from multi-site RCTs, using available data from those RCTs, and for assessing the likelihood that prediction errors will lead to errors in local policy decisions. It also provides the first empirical evidence on the accuracy with which local impacts can be predicted from the evidence taken from published reports on RCTs in education.

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