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Kurzarbeit Bis Lang-Arbeiter: Do European Short-Time Work Programs Prevent Long-Run Employment Increases?

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This research paper analyzes the impact of short-time work programs on changes in the unemployment rate of workers ages 25-54 in 17 European countries over a 10-year period. Short-time work programs share common characteristics, but differ by country in their eligibility and conditionality requirements and overall generosity. European trends in unemployment and firm-level inefficiencies evidence a need for programs that reduce inefficient separation during economic downturns. Through a differences-in-differences regression analysis that exploits variations in program use and take-up rate across European countries, this paper determines that an increased short-time work program take-up rate during periods of decreased output is associated with a statistically significant decrease in unemployment fluctuations. The research explores regional trends in unemployment and political and demographic trends in short-time work take-up, and concludes by proposing potential paths for future study. (JEL Classification Codes: J08, J64, J65, J68)

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