Ungrateful Successors
Open Access DepositedWhy Do Authoritarian Leaders Turn on Their Predecessors?
Downloadable Content
Managed succession of power has long been a common strategy of authoritarian regime survival. By hand-picking a trusted and loyal ally as a successor, an outgoing leader aims to maximize their wellbeing under the new administration. However, peaceful managed successions do not always turn out well for outgoing authoritarians. Once executive power changes hands, the fate of the predecessor lies at the mercy of the new leader. Indeed, we increasingly see cases where successors turn on their predecessors, resulting in outcomes ranging from being forced out of politics to wide-scale purges and imprisonment. What determines an authoritarian successor’s treatment of their predecessor in the aftermath of a managed power succession? This dissertation develops a theory of successor’s legitimacy to explain why authoritarian leaders sometimes turn on their predecessors. Dyads that have the predecessor staying politically active after a managed succession are more likely to see a shift in the successor’s treatment of their predecessor. The coexistence of two poles of authority within a single elite pyramid is suboptimal for successors, but it is only when they are faced with a legitimacy crisis that they change their treatment of the predecessors. The new treatment is determined by the predecessor’s and successor’s relative organizational capacity at the time of the crisis. To evaluate this theory, the dissertation introduces a global dataset of 1,272 authoritarian successions from 1946 to 2025 to identify broader patterns in leader exits and post-tenure fates. It then turns to the post-Soviet region for in-depth case studies of managed successions with divergent outcomes in patronal presidential regimes in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Armenia, and Turkmenistan. Finally, the study draws on comparative cases from Africa to assess how similar dynamics unfold in other patronal contexts.
- All rights reserved
Notice to Authors
If you are the author of this work and you have any questions about the information on this page, please use the Contact form to get in touch with us.