Quantifying Change Risk in Cloud Computing Environments
Open AccessThis research introduces a System Dynamics model that engineers can use to simulate the expected value of economic damage to cloud customers if a change fails. As cloud adoption rapidly increases, the revenue loss potential of cloud customers due to human error can be significant. The model’s parameters enables an engineer to incorporate a quantitatively derived worst-case impact from the customer’s perspective. Typical technical change management processes in organizations are qualitative technical judgments of risk and implications based on the engineer’s knowledge of making the change. It is unlikely that the engineer working on infrastructure components has any visibility of the change’s economic risk. The practical application of this model focuses on simulating the probability of technical human errors relating to the compute portion of a typical cloud architecture. Engineers can quickly adapt the model for any layer of the cloud and any class of errors.
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