The Days of the Sword Run Unbroken: Attack, Defense and the Question of Victory in War, 1792-2023

War has been a constant throughout human history. A monumental shift in 1792 led to the creation of an entirely new form of war, one that has characterized conflict up to the present day. This thesis argues that the shift in question resulted in the development of a specific trend in war: that the defender in any particular conflict is generally the one who achieves victory. The reasons for this can be found in the writings of Antoine-Henri de Jomini and, in particular, Carl von Clausewitz. Their assertions regarding Means and Will, Genius and the Strategic Defense, when taken in conjunction with historical examples, reveal the causes and prerequisites for this trend. There are exceptions to this rule, and the theories addressed not only explain the rule, but also its exceptions. Should a defender’s Will exceed that of their attacker, and should they be able to hold off the attacker, then the defender has the advantage. Should Will be relatively even, and the attacker have the advantage in Means, the war will go the other way. While no predictive model can ever be called perfect, the trajectory of history has shown that the outcomes of past conflicts follow this rule. Understanding the past is crucial to understanding the present, and even possibly predicting the course of future events. This is doubly-true now, considering the events in Ukraine which many thought would be over in a week. That view was wrong, and served as the inspiration for this thesis. This thesis now shows the reason why Ukraine has stood as long as it has, and why a Ukrainian victory is still very much in the cards.

Author

• Broecking-Knowlton, Devon Christian

Language

• en

Keyword

• Jomini
• Attack
• Defense
• Clausewitz
• War
• Will

Date created

• 2023

Type of Work

• Master's Thesis

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• History

Degree

• M.A.

Advisor

• Brunsman, Denver

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/x920fx865