Terrain-Specific Modeling of Early Cost and Duration for Nigerian Wells
Open Access Depositedand 40% and 44% for DHD and days at wellsite, DWS, respectively. The deepwater models R2(adj) are 54%, 81%, 82% and 41% for TWC, DHC, DHD and DWS respectively. The terrain-specific models for total well cost and duration, as well as cost and duration of the sub-activities of dryhole drilling and completion phases, provide standardized cost estimation tools for the petroleum industry players in Nigeria such as field development planners, marginal-field operators, regulators who benchmark performance, well project managers who manage the well delivery processes, among others.
Abstract of Praxis Terrain-Specific Modeling of Early Cost & Duration for Niger Delta Wells Early well cost estimates are crucial for petroleum field development projects but are currently lacking standardized methodology, leading to cost overruns.This research introduces terrain-specific direct and multilevel models suitable for early cost estimation, by using variables that are stable throughout the well delivery process. Data for land, shallow offshore and deepwater wells in the Niger Delta (Nigeria), are applied to develop several multiple linear regression models, using forward addition, and backward elimination, of variables, as well as linear regression with regularization. The best-fit models were selected based on their high predictive and generalization power. For land wells, the models produced R2(adj) of 82%, 90% and 91% for total well cost, TWC, dryhole cost, DHC and dryhole days, DHD, respectively. For Shallow offshore, the models returned R2(adj) of 81% and 88% for TWC and DHC respectively
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