Essays on Measuring the Economic Impact of Coups and Conflict, Global Integration, and Entrepreneurial Inequality
Open Access DepositedEstimating the Economic Impact of Preserving Autocracy in Syria and Reinstating Autocracy in Myanmar This paper assesses the economic toll of prolonged authoritarian rule in Syria and the reinstatement of autocracy in Myanmar, revealing stark impacts on national GDP and economic resilience. Using synthetic control methods (SCM) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, it estimates counterfactual economic scenarios that highlight significant losses in economic output for both countries. In Syria, the civil war has led to a sharp contraction in GDP, widespread infrastructure collapse, and a weakened economic base, with the synthetic model showing Syria’s hypothetical GDP trajectory as vastly higher without the conflict. Similarly, in Myanmar, the 2021 military coup reversed years of economic progress, with the analysis showing projected GDP losses well into the future as a result of renewed autocracy. These findings emphasize the high economic cost of conflict and regime instability, illustrating how shifts toward harsher authoritarian rule severely undermine economic growth, investment confidence, and the foundational structure of national economies. Paper 2
Measuring the Biases, Burdens, and Barriers Women Entrepreneurs Endure in Myanmar (2021) Entrepreneurs in Myanmar face many challenges to starting and operating a business. As is the experience globally, women often experience these challenges to a greater extent and face additional sociocultural barriers, limiting their equal participation in the economy. To develop a better understanding of the dynamics holding back private sector development, especially for women, this paper uses data from the first-of-a-kind, firm-level data set available in Myanmar. The analysis explores the variance of experience female-owned micro, small, and medium-size enterprises face compared with their male-owned counterparts. The paper assesses the barriers imposed on entrepreneurs and their businesses and identifies firm-level characteristics leading to the use of good business practices. Further, the analysis investigates the adoption of gender and family-friendly policies, as an outcome and as a determinant of business success. The purpose of the paper is to gain a better understanding of the barriers to gender-inclusive private sector development in Myanmar and provide tangible recommendations to private- and government-level actors. Overall, the analysis finds the major constraints for women entrepreneurs are access to finance and sociocultural factors, such as family responsibilities and household work.
Paper 1
Modelling changing economic dependencies with external trading partners as Myanmar emerges out of autocracy with a special application to separate the external and domestic policy channels of COVID-19 on economic growth This paper examines Myanmar’s shifting trade dependencies and susceptibility to global shocks during its transition from 2011 to early 2021. Under its “Triple Transition,” Myanmar’s economic integration with the global economy intensified through trade, capital inflows, and remittances, yet remained comparatively limited and uneven. Using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model encompassing 30 country- or region-specific models—including major partners such as China, the United States, Japan, the Euro Area, and Thailand—the study quantifies Myanmar’s responses to external economic fluctuations. Results show that Myanmar exhibits its highest sensitivity to changes in China’s GDP, while spillover effects from U.S. and Japanese shocks have declined as China’s influence has grown. The GVAR framework also distinguishes external shocks, including COVID-19, from domestic policy responses, clarifying the balance between international and local drivers of economic performance. Findings highlight Myanmar’s heightened vulnerability to global slowdowns, underscoring the need for trade diversification, stronger institutions, and policy reforms to reduce over-reliance on a few key partners. The paper concludes with targeted recommendations to enhance resilience in post-authoritarian contexts, address supply chain disruptions, and strengthen Myanmar’s economic footing amidst ongoing uncertainties. Paper 3
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