Marine Propulsion Product Reliability Prediction Based on Accelerated Life Testing and Customer Usage Characteristics
Open AccessAccelerated life tests have been widely used in assessing product reliability during the development phase. However, traditional methods of estimating product reliability, without considering a product’s unique operating characteristics, can lead to significant errors. Reliability estimation errors in accelerated life tests of marine propulsion products (MPPs) can lead to unnecessary design changes, costing an average of $50,000 per design modification (AIAG.org, 2012). Examples of distinct product operating characteristics of MPPs include: season (e.g., winter vs. summer), environment (e.g., saltwater vs. freshwater), and purpose (e.g., recreational vs. commercial). In this research, MPP operating hours were characterized and incorporated into a Weibull 3-parameter life data model to reduce reliability estimation errors, thereby minimizing unnecessary redesign activities and leading to development cost optimization. The results show that traditional methods can lead to significant errors, as much as 99%, particularly for commercial applications in a saltwater environment. These errors are caused by a lack of consideration for commercial user’s needs, who use MPPs as much as 14 times more, on average, than recreational customers.
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