Planning and Optimizing MODE Lens Production via Integrated Cost, Schedule, and Risk Modelling
Open AccessMultiple-order Diffractive Engineered Surface (MODE) lenses are a novel optical technology with discriminating characteristics compared to existing components. These characteristics ideally position MODE lenses for various applications, particularly in enabling otherwise unfeasible large diameter (>> 1m) space telescopes. In addition to technical advantages such as precision performance and reduced mass, MODE lenses offer unique producibility benefits given fabrication via glass moulding. However, research is required to advance MODE lens manufacturing capabilities from current laboratory prototypes to desired production-level scale. This doctoral research presents the first codified large-scale MODE lens manufacturing process and the first process model of MODE lens mass production. An integrated cost, schedule, and risk model for MODE lens production was constructed utilizing Monte Carlo simulation. Applying queuing theory to the Monte Carlo model, an approach is presented to improve the MODE lens production process by optimizing manufacturing variables. As a representative case study, this approach was utilized to simulate and optimize production of 35 MODE lenses, and salient outputs were determined, including probabilistic production cost, schedule, and risk at the overall process and task level. Following this exercise, recommendations for minimizing total process duration and insights on time-phased cost are presented. The impact of critical manufacturing process variables—moulding yield and mould lifetime—are also discussed. Overall, through the application of systems engineering and operations research principles to MODE lens production, this research serves to help optimize implementation and scaling of this emerging technology—of great relevance to defense and civil space industries.
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