Bridging Scientific Model Outputs with Emergency Response Needs in Catastrophic Earthquake Responses
Open AccessIn emergency management, scientific models are widely used for running hazard simulations and estimating losses often in support of planning and mitigation efforts. This work expands utility of the scientific model into the response phase of emergency management. The focus is on the common operating picture as it gives context to emergency response information needs. The research originates with Geneva, Switzerland conference involving the International Federation of the Red Cross/Red Crescent societies. In general, the conference identified decisions, actions and critical success factors that were based on various disaster scenarios. It also highlighted the sensitivity of the response system to issues of context, timing, and function. Starting with these conference findings, this research applies expert opinion to develop a methodology, using rational consensus, to develop an information relevance model in emergency response.One commonly used scientific model in United States emergency management is a loss estimation program known as HAZUS-MH. This program offers information capabilities useful to emergency management professionals in consideration for estimating damage, loss, and economic impact due to floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes. In any type of disaster, emergency managers need a comprehensive perspective--a common operating picture--to develop a situational awareness critical to decision making. The methodology required scenario development and simulation to establish context for the expert elicitation process. Because HAZUS-MH offers fifty-four categories of information factors, the information hierarchy process required an initial screening as a first stage. Using the catastrophic earthquake response context, experts screened the HAZUS-MH information factors to determine the most relevant mass care response information needs. This resulted in eleven information factors; the factors were then presented to a new group of experts in a scenario-based stakeholder preference study that established preference based on the single criteria of relevance. The specific expert elicitation method used psychological scaling to establish scores for each HAZUS-MH information factor. Using the Thurstone C model to establish upper and lower confidence intervals for each score, the study offers information hierarchy findings and conclusions for the mass care function's initial response.
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Johannes_gwu_0075A_10534.pdf | 2018-01-16 | Open Access |
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