Climate Change Impacts on Arctic Infrastructure: Lifecycle & Damage Repair Costs in the Circumpolar Region
Open AccessThe Arctic is a dynamic region, experiencing pronounced climatic changes and socioeconomic transformations. Among other impacts, permafrost is thawing, which degrades its ability to support above-ground structures. These changes pose a risk to existing infrastructure, increasing stress and wear. Arctic residents and the many industries that utilize Arctic resources, including natural gas and rare earth metals, depend on infrastructures to live in the harsh climate, move people, and transport goods. Within the interconnected global economy, disturbance of Arctic industries and supply chains has the potential to impact regions outside the Arctic itself. This study estimates increased infrastructure lifecycle costs and climate damages by 2060, under the RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. This monetary indicator was used to analyze the spatial distribution of risk from climate damages in the Arctic at the regional scale. Across the circumpolar region, the study estimated a 27% increase in infrastructure lifecycle costs by the 2050-2059 relative to 2006-2015. Over 14% of total infrastructure fixed assets are at risk of damages from bearing capacity loss, ground subsidence, and precipitation increases. This risk is unevenly distributed, particularly affecting Northern Canada and Siberia, where several regions are predicted to incur over 1% of annual gross regional product to offset combined potential lifecycle cost increases and climate damages. However, on a local scale, the study found that anthropogenic factors – such as maintenance capacity and political capital may negate or accelerate the negative impact of climate change on infrastructure stability.
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