As melting sea ice opens Arctic shipping lanes to unprecedented maritime traffic, the frozen ground beneath Arctic communities is steadily disappearing, and with it, the terrestrial transportation corridors that connect remote settlements. Using the Community Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model (CATAM), this study evaluates the vulnerability of linear infrastructure to climatic changes. Transportation methods assessed include (1) permanent roads and railways, where permafrost degradation threatens bearing capacity and triggers thaw subsidence, and (2) seasonal winter and ice roads, where viability depends on sustained sub-freezing temperatures, sufficient snow depth, and ice thickness. Modeled under moderate (SSP 2-4.5) and fossil-intensive (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios, CATAM projects that 88-91% of administrative units within the permafrost zone will experience declines in annual accessibility by mid-century, with a circumpolar average of an 82-84 day loss per year. The most intense impacts are concentrated in the southern periphery of the Russian permafrost zone, Canada, and Alaska, with seasonal losses peaking during October and November when environmental constraints on road stability are most severe. While improving marine access may benefit coastal operations, inland communities face disruptions to supply chains and mobility, especially subsistence-dependent populations and regional centers that are governed by remoteness. These findings provide a baseline for identifying where terrestrial accessibility is most at risk for Arctic peoples and offer a foundation from which adaptations can be strategized to account for the asymmetric distribution of climate impacts across Arctic landscapes and stakeholders.

Author

• Haggerty, Emma

Language

• en

Keyword

• Permafrost
• Arctic Infrastructure
• Accessibility
• Climate Change
• Terrestrial Transportation
• Arctic Development

Date created

• 2026

Type of Work

• Master's Thesis

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• Geography

Degree

• M.S.

Advisor

• Streletskiy, Dmitry A

Committee Member(s)

• Engstrom, Ryan

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/s4655h523