An Application of Change Point Analysis Techniques for the Characterization of the To Complete Indexes Threshold Criterion for Major Acquisition Category I Programs in the Department of Defense
Open AccessProject Managers in the Department of Defense and private industry are interested in utilizing effective and accurate methods to monitor and track projects with useful Earned Value Management project indicators. This praxis research addresses the problem of non-effective means of detecting a significant change in the To Complete Indexes trend at the threshold value for project performance indicators in Department of Defense projects. This research was executed by conducting an empirical study of EVM data sets regarding several Major Acquisition Category I programs. In particular, the analysis focused on the examination of project performance indexes, Cost Performance Index and Schedule Performance Index with respect to time along with the To Complete Indexes to determine whether there is a threshold value that illustrates the possibility of an abrupt change in the relationship between the parameters. It is believed that a To Complete Performance Index and a To Complete Schedule Performance Index value greater than 1.10 indicate that projects have a low probability of obtaining the originally desired project performance objectives, in terms cost and schedule. The quantitative methodology uses the Bayesian Change Point analysis and Wild Binary Segmentation to examine individual projects for the determination of the statistical significance of the pre-threshold and post-threshold change points.
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