Territorial Changes, the Prospect of Victory, and Civilian Victimization: Evidence from the Korean War
Open AccessUnder what conditions do armed groups, in a conventional civil war, target civilians and what determines the magnitude of violence that they employ? Although conventional civil war, defined as internal armed conflicts between fully-fledged regular armies, has become the most frequent type of warfare since 1990, scholars of political violence have focused mostly on irregular civil wars, defined as internal conflicts between armed groups whose military capabilities are highly asymmetric. To address this gap, this dissertation explores the timing and scale of civilian victimization in conventional civil war, with an empirical focus on the Korean War.I argue that the occurrence and magnitude of civilian victimization are heavily influenced by territorial changes and the prospect of victory perceived by each group. Specifically, territorial changes are the major conditions under which armed groups rely on violence. When they gain territory from an adversary, they seek out remaining supporters of the enemy and use violence to control them, and when they are withdrawing from a territory, they target civilians in order to reduce the number of enemy supporters. In addition, the magnitude of violence is influenced by a groups’ perceived prospect of victory. When armed groups believe that they are winning, these groups minimize loss of life by being more selective when using violence. To evaluate the proposed arguments, I undertake a mixed-method analysis of civilian victimization during the Korean War.Using an original panel dataset based on archival documents, interviews with victims and perpetrators of violence, and reports from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, I conduct a statistical analysis that examines the correlation between key variables. Following that, I perform two case studies of the Bodo League Massacre and the instances of violence in the city of Incheon in order to test the causal logic of my arguments in depth with qualitative evidence.
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