A System Dynamics Model to Determine Costs Associated with Transitioning the DoD Vehicle Fleet to a Zero-Emission Fleet
Open Access Depositedof these, DoD owns approximately 180,000 (Hwang, 2023), and of these vehicles, light-duty vehicles, which are the first tier of vehicles to be replaced, make up about 70,000. The motivation for this research was the aggressive nature of EO 14057 and the federal government's efforts to determine how to comply with and implement the EO's goals. The modeling framework was developed in Vensim, a system dynamics modeling software. This research provides a valuable tool for fleet managers, decision-makers, DoD leaders, and stakeholders in assessing the ZEV fleet transition landscape. The framework enables stakeholders to evaluate the financial implications of different strategies and identify possible scenarios to make data-informed decisions regarding their fleets in fiscally constrained environments. This model addresses a specific need for forecasting and planning purposes among federal fleet leaders, who are not concerned with the details of their fleets but rather with the broader landscape in which they operate.
This research focuses on developing a system dynamics model to determine costs for transitioning the Department of Defense (DoD) fleet to a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) fleet. In December of 2021, the president of the United States (U.S.) issued Executive Order (EO) 14057, Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability. This EO called for federal agencies to acquire vehicles for ZEVs by 2035. An example of ZEVs is electric vehicles. As mandated in the EO, the transition requires that light-duty vehicle acquisitions be one hundred percent ZEV by the beginning of 2027. Every Federal agency with a fleet of at least twenty vehicles shall develop, annually review, and update a zero-emission fleet strategy. The strategy will include fleet right-sizing, that is, optimizing fleet size, the composition of the fleet, installing ZEV refueling infrastructure, and maximizing the acquisition and deployment of zero-emission light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles where the General Services Administration (GSA) offers one or more ZEV options for the specific vehicle class. The Federal fleet comprises approximately 380,000 vehicles
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