Low-Carbon Development Pathways
Open Access DepositedWelfare Gains Within Climate Constraints
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The global carbon budget is shrinking, yet past economic development models were contingent on high levels of emissions. This raises the question
How can countries improve living standards today in a carbon-constrained world? While responsibility for mitigation lies with countries with large cumulative emissions, models of less carbon-intensive development are urgently needed. Examples already exist, but remain underexplored. In this study, I contribute to filling this gap by first conducting a hierarchical cluster analysis to systematically group countries based on their relationship between multidimensional social welfare and their fair share of cumulative CO₂ emissions (a country’s cumulative emissions relative to the global carbon budget and its population). I present a development-emissions typology and identify outliers in low-emission development. Using a comparative approach, I evaluate the development experiences of Costa Rica and Thailand. Both countries have achieved substantial improvements in social welfare while keeping their fair share of cumulative CO₂ emissions relatively low. Three mechanisms in particular can explain this. First, early power-sector choices reduced emissions relative to their peers. In Costa Rica, this was achieved by avoiding an oil-based electricity system, and in Thailand, by avoiding coal dominance. Second, they established net land-use sinks that reduce cumulative emissions. Finally, both countries avoided dominance by emissions-intensive heavy industry. The findings reveal mechanisms of low-emission development and structural pathways compatible with carbon budgets.
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