National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) Patient Queuing Simulation Model

During a United States (U.S.) armed conflict with a near-peer adversary, U.S. military personnel could sustain injuries in numbers which exceed the capacity of the military medical system. Upon medical evacuation to the U.S, these patients can be distributed and receive care from the civilian healthcare facilities (HCFs) enrolled in the National Disaster Medical System (NDMS). However, HCFs are already saturated, and maintaining a standard of care is a priority. This study evaluates the NDMS capacity in the National Capital Region (NDMS-NCR) to accept and treat an influx of 105 patients/day, over 100-days, focusing on patient throughput to identify and characterize potential issues. Utilizing SimioTM software, a queuing simulation was developed, incorporating factors including 1) patient arrival times, historical injuries from past conflicts, and publicly available HCF capacities. Two scenarios for HCF availability were simulated, comparing HCFs from the Bethesda Federal Coordinating Center (FCC) with Bethesda FCC and parts of the Baltimore FCC. Key metrics, including system throughput volume, server utilization, and entity wait times, were analyzed to assess the time-efficiency and capacity of the system. Findings suggest that approximately 49% of patients will exit the system during the 100-day period, and patients will spend an average of 479 hours in the system. Though patient types which require Burn units spend the longest time in the system, patients requiring Acute Rehab Units (ARU) experience the highest wait times. Additionally, most servers reach maximum capacity during the 100-day period.

Author

• Ottinger, Elizabeth Rea

Language

• English

Keyword

• Data Analysis
• Queuing Simulation
• Emergency Response
• Model-based Systems Engineering

Date created

• 2024

Type of Work

• Master's Thesis

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• Engineering Management

Degree

• M.S.

Advisor

• Santos, Joost R
• Barbera, Joseph

Committee Member(s)

• Barbera, Joseph
• Sullivan, Natalie
• Santos, Joost R

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/pk02cb74w