A Probabilistic Supply Chain Model to Measure Companies’ Risk When Sourcing Internationally: A Case Study for South Asia

Modern supply chains are expansive and may encompass many risks which may negatively affect companies. The novel and free model developed for this praxis is intended to be used as a starting point for companies to quantify these supply chain risks. The model provides users an easy to use and simple to understand qualitative risk rating (i.e., high, medium-high, medium-low, and low) based on perceived high or low risk inputs. The model focuses on South Asia as a use case due to the large population, regional diversity, and its investment potential when compared to other regions. Utilizing various factors common to supply chains (e.g., economic risk, delivery risk, and control risk) and grouping together by either external, network, and organizational categories allows users of the model to immediately understand where their risks may lie. When comparing the output of the model to other supply chain models or tools, the model built for this praxis is able to accurately represent the risks a company may experience when sourcing from South Asia. This research paper provides an extensive literature review of the risks associated with supply chains, risk assessments, Bayesian Networks, and literature-based model inputs (which are used in the validation of the model). This paper also walks through the development of the Bayesian model, the data used for the model, and the results of each input which culminates in the final model.

Author

• Berry, Alexander Scott

Language

• en

Keyword

• Supply Chain

Date created

• 2022

Type of Work

• Dissertation

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• Engineering Management

Degree

• D.Engr.

Advisor

• Blackford, Joseph P

Committee Member(s)

• Etemadi, Amir
• Sarkani, Shahryar

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/ng451j26b