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Benchmark Requirement Decision Making Tool to Optimize Effectiveness of Weapon System Modifications Open Access

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Constraints on Department of Defense funding make it imperative that all funds expended to upgrade and modernize aging weapon systems provide the biggest payoff. Using the US Air Forces' Minuteman III (MM III) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) as an example, this paper will outline an approach to advocate that all money spent hold up to the standard that the maximum return on weapon system effectiveness, as measured by the probability of kill (PK) against the Minuteman III target set, should be realized. This standard will be compared against 30 years of representative MM III modification programs analyzing their costs versus their effects on PK. This data will be used to evaluate PK as a tool to aid decision makers to maximize the return on funding.

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