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Vehicle Dynamic Shift: The Energy Impacts of the Penetration of Electric Vehicles in the U.S. Open Access

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The potential of pure electric vehicles (EVs) becoming a disruptive technology is very real. Significant market acceptance of EVs could cause a dynamic shift in the auto industry, leading to disruption in the power industry. The question, then, is when will the United States (U.S.) run out of electrical capacity assuming current production does not increase with increasing demand? This study uses the Bass Diffusion Model and Monte Carlo Simulations to model different EV market penetration rates to answer this question. Results will provide engineering managers and policymakers with a better understanding of how to address the concerns of shifting energy demands between the transportation and power sectors.

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