Estimating Productivity Losses from Injury and Illness in the Military Deployed Environment
Open AccessObjective: To develop estimates of lost productivity attributed to non-battle injuries and illnesses within a deployed United States service member population in the absence of measured observational data. Design: Monte Carlo simulation models were developed using injury and illness data and inputs derived from publicly available literature and government reports. In-depth literature reviews were conducted on each injury and illness to subjectively assess the weight of evidence and evaluate and synthesize the information to determine the parameters of the distributions. Input distributions were incorporated with injury and illness case data from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan over 2010 and 2011. Results: The data set included 5,231 cases of depression (14,828 visits), 13,322 cases of respiratory illness (15,287 visits) and 397 injuries (621 visits). The estimated total median days lost for depression was 42,349 with a 5th to 95th percentile range of 14,093 to 167,667 days. Respiratory illness had a similar estimated total median days lost of 42,349 days with a 5th to 95th percentile range of 21,915 to 68,681 days lost. Of the injuries included, navicular fractures had the highest median days lost of 10,428 days. Conclusions: This study takes an innovative approach to further understand the burden injuries and illnesses have on the military. The results of this study demonstrate how productivity losses can be used as a common metric to quantify and compare injuries and illnesses in terms directly related to readiness of a force and relevant to military leaders. It also recognizes our limitations and gaps in available knowledge, which contributes to uncertainty in model outputs. Further research will not only decrease this uncertainty, but could be used to expand these methods into a broader array of injuries and illnesses.
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