A Model for Forecasting Development Schedule Impacts when Integrating Immature Technologies on DoD Rapid Acquisition Programs

Despite efforts from the United States Department of Defense (DoD) to field urgently required solutions to the warfighter, DoD Rapid Acquisition Programs (DRAPs) often experience schedule delays. Published government reports cite that immature technologies are often integrated in DRAPs, thereby resulting in system development delays and increased risk to military missions (GAO, April 2010). This research proposes a schedule impact prediction model that will forecast the schedule impact resulting from the integration of immature technologies. To ensure representation of typical programs, the model is calibrated by well-documented DRAPs over the last 25 years. The model will forecast the development timeline of the DRAP through a simulation accounting for various independent variables, such as technology maturity levels and likelihood of successful subsystem integration. This model will help the DoD avoid schedule risk by estimating the time required to meet the initial operational capability (IOC) of future DRAPs before they enter the engineering and manufacturing development phase.

Author

• Kapustin, Yuri Petrovich

Language

• en

Keyword

• Schedule
• Defense
• Simulation
• Development
• Prediction
• Engineering

Date created

• 2021

Type of Work

• Dissertation

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• Engineering Management

Degree

• D.Engr.

Advisor

• Fossaceca, John M

Committee Member(s)

• Etemadi, Amir
• Sarkani, Shahryar

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/k06988374