Electronic Thesis/Dissertation
 

Using Relative Research Volume as a Measure of Technology Maturity

Open Access

The research objective is to quantify early-stage technology maturity using publicly available sources in an objective, repeatable fashion. Traditional technology maturity assessments rely heavily on expert opinion and do not show a correlated effect on system quality (Azizian et al., 2011). Further, Dr. Adoko showed that a mature technology declaration during traditional acquisition processes increased the probability of a Nunn-McCurdy breach for DoD and NASA projects (Adoko et al., 2015). This praxis introduces a novel approach: using research publication data as an objective indication of technology maturity. Specifically, the rise and fall of relative research volume over time to indicate the level of technological maturity. Relative research volume is collected using keyword search on technical databases, such as IEEE Explore, over time on a yearly basis (defined as ΔRRV). It is the percent of total research of a technology with respect to all given research during the same time frame expressed in decibels. The collected data on relative research volume is then compared to authoritative declarations of technical maturity from authoritative sources such as Selected Acquisition Reports and independent assessments from the United States Government Accountability Office to identify characteristics of the ΔRRV curve with respect to maturity. The work herein shows relative research volume is a statistically significant measure of technology maturity with an 87% prediction accuracy and can be used to estimate rudimentary timelines for a technology to reach maturity. The method is predictive for the analyzed technologies and is shown to be appropriate for use in pre-Milestone B activities such as source selection and Milestone decision support.

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