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RISK PRECURSOR ANALYSIS: AN ASSESSMENT OF FLIGHT VARIABLES AFFECTING CIVIL AVIATION ACCIDENTS AND INCIDENTS Open Access

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Flight safety has been an important topic for both academia and the industry. Aviation experts and authorities, as well as commercial airline administrators, have always been looking for improvements in the safety of flights. Researchers, on the other hand, have tried to model avionic fatalities and suggest improvements or upgrades in the flight systems to reduce flight risks. One perspective has been to look at available data from past accidents and incidents to capture and model the relationship between different factors involved in each event. Some important factors are not included in the databases maintained by authorities like the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). First, this research tries to improve existing database factors by adding more variables; second, it assesses the level of effect each group of independent variables has on the correlation between flight factors and accident/incident magnitude factors using a multivariate statistical analysis. This can be considered as accident/incident precursor analysis in aviation risk management. The study concludes that the pilot related factors are the most influential variable group on the correlation between Dependent Variables (DVs) and Independent Variables (IVs). The significance of these factors or group of factors helps researchers and policy makers to consider the more important ones in their decision-making processes. The research extends its contribution by building a descriptive model using canonical analysis for different phases of flight. This model can help flight schedulers as a decision-supporting tool in their scheduling process.

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