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System Dynamics Modeling of Residential Solar Program Use Case in Japan to meet Greenhouse Gas Emissions Target

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Japan’s current energy policy goal is to meet or exceed a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 26% by 2030. With over 70% of its landmass covered in forests, as an island nation Japan has limited availability of land and natural resources in both fossil fuel and renewable energy. Island nations are also more susceptible to world trade agreements, the global political climate, and shipping constraints due to their isolated nature. Such isolation is a strong motivation to become self-sufficient, whether it is for energy independence which is an underlying assumption of this research, or other essential societal needs such as food security. While Japan investigates re-starting nuclear power plants, investing in hydrogen technology, and developing offshore wind generation, this research highlights the emissions reduction potential of installing residential photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage systems. A system dynamics model is used to simulate the impact of PV systems specifically in the residential sector as a cost-effective option that could reduce and meet Japan’s GHG emissions goal by 2030. Results are that the PV residential sector implementation can cost effectively offset greenhouse gas emissions by over a million tons each year, while potentially improving social equity amongst the prefectures, which in and of itself could have positive compounding effects for Japan as a nation.

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