Predicting Cost and Schedule Growth on Middle Tier Acquisition Programs Through Forecast Modeling

Predicting Cost and Schedule Growth on Middle Tier Acquisition Programs Through Forecast Modeling The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) faces formidable challenges in managing defense acquisition programs, particularly within the Middle Tier Acquisition (MTA) framework. This praxis critically explores the historical perspectives, the MTA pathways and programs overview, and the challenges inherent in defense acquisition management. The following literature review lays the groundwork for developing a robust forecast model by focusing on the complexities surrounding bureaucratic processes, budgetary constraints, technological advancements, programmatic uncertainties, and collaborative dynamics. This model predicts cost and schedule growth (CS) and mitigates technical risks of CS overruns. As the defense landscape evolves, MTA pathways aim to prioritize agility, rapid prototyping, and rapid and efficient fielding of capabilities. However, historical delays and technical risks persist, emphasizing the need for innovative solutions. By examining the nuances of defense acquisition challenges and leveraging insights from historical contexts and MTA pathway dynamics, this praxis contributes to developing a robust forecast model. The synthesis of existing literature and exploring internal/ external variables and contractor roles set the stage for integrating forecast models into the Developmental Evaluation Framework (DEF). The review concludes by identifying gaps in current research, offering opportunities for advancements, and emphasizing the critical role of this predictive modeling in enhancing CS management within the MTA pathways.

Author

• Dong, Jacky JiaQi

Language

• English

Keyword

• Model
• Cost
• Forecast
• Middle Tier Acquisition
• Schedule
• Risk

Date created

• 2024

Type of Work

• Dissertation

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• Engineering Management

Degree

• D.Engr.

Advisor

• Jones, Michael C

Committee Member(s)

• Stirgwolt, Benjamin
• Campos-Nanez, Enrique

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/f4752h63v