Mapping the COVID-19 Infodemic on Twitter and Examining the Influential Role of Emotions in Information Diffusion
Open AccessThis study analyzed 25,018,086 tweets posted during the initial nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic between March to November 2020. Using a mixed method of automated and manual content analyses as well as inferential statistical analyses, results from this study point to debatable information as the most prevalent and diffused information category followed by credible information, general disinformation, trolling, biased or one-sided and conspiratorial disinformation. Contrary to mainstream understanding, the prevalence of credible information was double that of disinformation. Politicization of public health was an inherent trait within topics and targets associated with disinformation narratives. When considering predictors of diffusion for all prevalent information categories, discrete emotions associated with both low and high levels of certainty and control appraisals were statistically significant predictors of information diffusion irrespective of whether its credibility had been established as true, false, or unaccounted for. However, discrete emotions (specifically sadness, disgust, fear, and surprise) certainly add significantly more fuel to the virality fire for disinformation diffusion in comparison to credible information with up to 11 to 24-fold additional predicted retweets for disinformation in comparison to credible information. Debatable information also warrants further attention, resources, and remediation as the most diffused form of information during the initial nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic on Twitter. Curiously, only sadness was a statistically significant positive predictor of debatable information. The remaining six discrete emotions impacted the diffusion of debatable information negatively. Considering the shaping and diffusion of disinformation narratives involved a participatory process, so too must the strategies that respond to this issue. Relevant stakeholders must adopt a whole-of-society lens when devising measures to ensure a healthy information ecosystem on Twitter and other similar social media platforms. They must also address politicization of public health, acknowledge and clearly communicate scientific and situational uncertainty associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, and introduce “desirable inefficiencies” into social media platforms’ front-end and back-end systems to mitigate the spread of disinformation.
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