Development of Proxy Valuation and Asset Pricing Models for Onshore Nigeria Oil Concessions using Monte Carlo Simulation, Design of Experiments, and Multiple Regression Analysis
Open AccessDevelopment of Proxy Valuation and Asset Pricing Models for Onshore Nigeria Oil Concessions using Monte Carlo Simulation, Design of Experiments, and Multiple Regression Analysis The traditional oil industry approach for asset valuation based on discounted cash flow analysis is time-consuming, complex to develop, and difficult to audit. Hence, many Nigerian lenders depend on their borrowers’ investment analysis to make lending decisions resulting in a large proportion of non-performing loans in the Nigeria oil and gas industry. A set of simplified proxy models for onshore Nigeria oil and gas asset valuation and asset pricing has been developed as the product of this Praxis. The objective is to provide the Nigerian oil industry with alternative valuation and asset pricing models based on a few easy-to-determine value drivers such as oil price, gas price, gas fraction, unit technical costs, and unit acquisition cost. These proxy models provide a quick and inexpensive approach to estimating onshore Nigeria oil and gas asset value and reasonable acquisition price without detailed financial modeling rigor. The proxy models also provide a basis for screening multiple opportunities and conducting risk analysis using input parameter distributions. In addition, the metric for identifying overvalued transactions developed empirically as part of this Praxis serves as a reality check for other asset valuation methods with the potential to constrain bid prices for onshore Nigeria oil and gas asset sales and reduce the proportion of non-performing loans attributed to the industry.
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