Policy Change in the American States
Open AccessIn a substantive democracy, policies reflect citizen preferences. For a highly heterogenous country like the United States, state policies play an even crucial role in representing the preferences of state publics. Despite research showing state policies to be highly responsive to mass policy preferences, a “democratic deficit” exists in the American states where policies are only congruent with majority opinion half the time. To examine whether the democratic deficit has an effect on state publics, I analyze the impact of state abortion restriction and gun control policies on abortion conservatism and preference for stricter gun control, using public opinion data between 1974 and 2020. In general, the majority of abortion restriction and gun control policies have little impact on policy-specific preferences. Furthermore, I find that abortion restriction policies tend to reinforce Republican support in gubernatorial and state legislative elections, while Democratic gains due to gun control policies are attenuated and less consistent. In my third dissertation chapter, I examine the differential impact of Medicaid expansion on the Democratic vote share between high and low income ZIP codes in presidential and down-ballot elections from 2008 to 2020. Overall, I find the most meaningful impact on the net Democratic gain in gubernatorial elections due to Medicaid expansion among voters in low income ZIP codes than those in high income ZIP codes. The findings contribute to existing research on the positive feedback effects of the ACA as well as policy accountability among different segments of the American electorate.
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