A Widely Accessible Cost Estimation Model for NASA Robotic Space Projects
Open AccessCost challenges are to be expected when developing complex robotic space flight systems that seek to help discover the origins, evolution, and destiny of the universe, and the nature of the strange phenomena that shapes it. However, many large NASA missions routinely experience cost overruns resulting in a loss of confidence by the public and government officials in the agency’s ability to complete space projects within cost and on schedule. One of the primary causes of overruns is NASA’s culture of optimism which leads to the development of unrealistic plans and performance baselines (NASA OIG, 2018). The wider space community, which includes universities and space advocacy organizations like the Planetary Society, play a vital role in influencing the nation’s priorities and policies on space science and exploration by providing independent objective analysis; yet they are prohibited from having access to NASA’s robotic space project database and cost estimation models. This praxis creates an expanded and enhanced data set and uses it to develop a robust multiple linear regression model to forecast the future cost of NASA robotic space projects that is accessible to the wider space community. The model was developed and refined using 57 robotic space projects that started development between 1993 and 2017, after it was determined that this era was most appropriate for developing a model for forecasting future development costs. The final model has a R^2 of 77.48%, a R^2(adj) of 75.27%, and a R^2(pred) of 71.23%.
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