Enduring Precarity: The Settlement Strategies of Documented and Undocumented Afghan Refugee Returnees from Pakistan
Open AccessAfter decades of instability and precarity in both refuge and their home country, Afghan refugees still face an uncertain future, whether they return home or remain abroad. To explore the impact of protracted precarity on returnees and origin communities as well as the related disparity between intended and observed return patterns, this research investigated how enduring precarity impacts Afghan return and settlement patterns; how the data collection methods influence our understanding of refugee return at various scales and the implications for other contexts; and how the agency of Afghan refugees is reflected in the settlement patterns documented in this research.A primary focus for this research was to use newly available, higher resolution Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) data as well as traditional UNHCR and IOM Flow Monitoring Data to compare refugee returnee patterns across three variables: time, space, and documentation status. Accordingly, two primary datasets were used for this study: Afghan Voluntary Repatriation (VOLREP) curated by UNHCR and the DTM developed and maintained by IOM. I evaluated patterns of return using both datasets, as the relative benefits and limitations of each were suitable for different lines of analysis at different scales. Returnees to Afghanistan from Pakistan show clear geographic patterns at multiple scales during and after periods of peak return. There are regional patterns to modeling return intention, with persistently high population centers drawing newcomers more than other regions. Intended and actual return destinations for documented refugees showed complex behaviors in modeling at the district level, but model behaviors were notably regional as well. Finally, the patterns and conditions surrounding return in peak return periods were evidently influenced by host-country refugee precarity, as shown by divergence in patterns of return for undocumented returnees to the most urban and border accessible areas, relative to documented returnees. This precarity is persisting for the most vulnerable undocumented returnees, who find themselves in a state of continued social, economic, and political temporariness upon return.
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