Enhancing Model Based Forecasting of Geomagnetic Storms Open Access

Modern society is increasingly dependent on the smooth operation of large scale technology supporting Earth based activities such as communication, electricity distribution, and navigation. This technology is potentially threatened by global geomagnetic storms, which are caused by the impact of plasma ejected from the Sun upon the protective magnetic field that surrounds the Earth. Forecasting the timing and magnitude of these geomagnetic storms is part of the emerging discipline of space weather. The most severe geomagnetic storms are caused by magnetic clouds, whose properties and characteristics are important variables in space weather forecasting systems. The methodology presented here is the development of a new statistical approach to characterize the physical properties (variables) of the magnetic clouds and to examine the extent to which theoretical models can be used in describing both of these physical properties, as well as their evolution in space and time. Since space weather forecasting is a complex system, a systems engineering approach is used to perform analysis, validation, and verification of the magnetic cloud models (subsystem of the forecasting system) using a model-based methodology. This research demonstrates that in order to validate magnetic cloud models, it is important to categorize the data by physical parameters such as velocity and distance travelled. This understanding will improve the modeling accuracy of magnetic clouds in space weather forecasting systems and hence increase forecasting accuracy of geomagnetic storms and their impact on earth systems.

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