Simulation-Based Evaluation of Disruption-Response in Critical Public-Good Supply Chains
Open Access DepositedResilience Under Stress
Recent disruptions to medical, public goods, and essential products supply chains highlight the need for systematic, evidence-based approaches to evaluate how policy and operational responses shape supply chain resilience and equitable access. This dissertation develops and applies a sequence of agent-based simulation models to quantify how disruptions propagate through multi-tier critical-goods supply networks and how preparedness and response strategies jointly shape system performance and distribution of service during disruption. Chapter 2 examines sudden demand surges in a U.S. medical supply chain by modeling the interaction between the Strategic National Stockpile and the routine distribution network for needles and syringes under notional anthrax and severe influenza scenarios. Comparing inventory and capacity expansion with product substitution policies, the analysis finds that substitution authority, when established in advance, can simultaneously reduce emergency fulfillment delays and accelerate recovery of routine healthcare supply, while purely inventory- or capacity-oriented approaches require substantial up-front investment to achieve similar or inferior results. Chapter 3 expands the modeling framework to explore the 2022 U.S. infant formula shortage, calibrating the simulated supply network to reported production, trade, sales, and stockout patterns. Results show that prioritization rules (including WIC-focused allocation) influence who is served under shortage but do not resolve scarcity on their own
coordinated, timely combinations of supply- and demand-side interventions, such as import relief, substitution flexibility, and demand controls, produce larger improvements in both demand satisfaction and equity. Chapter 4 generalizes these case-specific insights through a factorial design spanning network topology, disruption type (production, demand, transportation, and compound shocks), and response strategy (prioritization rules paired with alternative sourcing and demand reduction actions). The results provide recommendations for strategy selection in each context and when supply chain information is incomplete. Across scenarios, structural redundancy (more connected supply networks) yields the largest shifts in achievable performance, response actions provide meaningful but smaller gains that scale with implementation intensity and duration, and prioritization rules primarily govern efficiency–equity tradeoffs along the attainable frontier. Collectively, the dissertation advances evidence-based guidance for designing resilient critical-goods supply chains and for shaping preparedness and crisis response decisions that account for both efficiency and equity.
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