Predicting Cost Growth on Major Defense Acquisition Programs Through Forecast Modeling

Department of Defense (DoD) overspending and unpredictability through its major defense acquisition programs (MDAP) challenge the U.S. budget. This study was a review of data internal and external to the program to establish correlations and predict whether MDAP will meet the following year’s budget. A forecasting model to assess MDAP factors to predict execution in future budgets could contribute to reducing DoD unpredictability on the top programs and priorities. This research incorporated multiple independent and dependent variables to find the best forecasting model and produce the most actionable predictions for MDAP annual performance. The independent variables were internal and external, and the dependent variables were specific to annual cost overrun. The results suggest new methods to program annual prediction with the external variables and provide an actionable model for risk reduction when considering annual program predictive performance.

Author

• Moore, Charles Anthony

Language

• en

Keyword

• Cost management
• Schedule Management
• Program Management PM
• Department of Defense DoD
• Major Defense Acquisition Program MDAP

Date created

• 2023

Type of Work

• Dissertation

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• Engineering Management

Degree

• D.Engr.

Advisor

• Ali, Daniyal

Committee Member(s)

• Etemadi, Amir
• Blackburn, Timothy

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/7w62f897x