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Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for Technology Insertion in High Complexity Systems Open Access

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Uncertainty arising from immature technology is a major cause of programmatic risk. Programs continue to have poor results in terms of cost and schedule performance. This research seeks to improve program performance during the system development phase by better understanding the risks of technology insertion. This research will seek to find indicators of cost overruns and schedule delays. A new technology readiness level (TRL) framework, TRL 2.0, is proposed to address current limitations and provide a more accurate understanding of technology maturity, thus providing a better understanding of the likelihood risk factor. A measure of centrality is proposed to assess a component’s importance in high complexity systems and thus better understand the consequence risk factor. Preliminary results show with statistical significance that an assessment using TRL 2.0, relative to the current TRL, along with centrality, results in a more accurate assessment of technology insertion risk.

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