A Synthetic Control Analysis of the USDA ReConnect Program
Open Access DepositedThis study examines the USDA ReConnect Program's impact on rural broadband connectivity using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) (Abadie & Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie, Diamond, & Hainmueller, 2010). Launched to improve broadband internet access in underserved rural areas, the ReConnect Program has provided funding in multiple rounds since 2019. By constructing a synthetic control group, this research assesses what rural broadband conditions might have been without the program's intervention. To ensure robust analysis, SCM is paired with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, addressing unobserved confounders and reducing multicollinearity among predictors.The results show that the program significantly improved broadband speeds in treated areas, with the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) demonstrating substantial gains in both download and upload speeds. Without the USDA ReConnect program, download and upload speeds would have been lower than they currently are, at 34.34 Mbps and 33.65 Mbps, respectively. Moreover, advancements in mobile networks and 5G technology played a critical role in boosting speeds, underscoring the importance of integrating both fixed and mobile infrastructure. This research contributes to the growing body of literature, offering insights valuable to policymakers and researchers, and emphasizing the critical role of targeted federal funding in closing the digital divide, enhancing rural connectivity, and fostering economic stability.
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