Risk Precursor Analysis of Commercial Aviation Safety Variables in the Post- COVID-19 Era
Open Access DepositedThe COVID-19 pandemic forced a multi-year cessation of U.S. commercial air operations. Both pilots and maintenance staff were furloughed as travel demand effectively halted. Although the industry successfully transitioned back to meet the post-pandemic spike in passenger volume, it met this volume under immense operational strain. This transition revealed a significant gap in pilot experience
it also revealed the degradation of maintenance cycles during the pandemic resulting in multiple adverse safety events with passenger injuries at varying levels. This praxis reviews this breakdown in safe operations in the post-pandemic era based on structural changes within the commercial airline industry that happened during the pandemic. By applying multiple analytical tools consisting of canonical correlation analysis, Wilks’ lambda significance testing, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, this study identifies which variables obtained from NTSB accident and incident reports were the primary drivers of increased risk to safe aviation operations. A novel framework for better analyzing aviation accident and incident risk precursors using a combination of these analytical methods is provided, allowing for actionable insights and recommendations to strengthen aviation safety.
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