Stochastic Model: Utilizing Monte Carlo Forecasting Methodology to Determine Feasibility of Hull Life Extensions for Ohio-Class Submarines
Open AccessBased on funding issues, technical challenges, and production delays, the Navy is concerned that the new Columbia-class submarine may not deliver as scheduled in FY28, potentially necessitating the extension of the current Ohio-class submarine 36-months past its certified design limits. If the Columbia-class is not able to support the gradual turnover and assumption of nuclear deterrence responsibilities from the Ohio-class, there is an increased risk of not being able to support U.S. Strategic Command requirements. This research proposes that a risk-based predictive model could potentially determine a maintenance facility’s ability to support the 36-month Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) by forecasting the durations required to complete the assigned work package. The model was based on data sets consisting of expected and actual durations originating from previously performed jobs over a 37-year period. This research was unique in that the data sets for the SLEP and validation work packages were analyzed for best-fit distributions at the system, subsystem, and component levels. This method generated favorable results with the model producing only an 8.16% error between the expected and actual historical data set durations (62,308 to 67,308 man-hours). Similarly, the validation work package yielded only a 7.59% error between expected and actual durations (35,049 to 37,927 man-hours). The methods, modeling, and results should convince the Navy Maintenance Enterprise to perform the SLEP on the selected number of Ohio-class platforms.
- All rights reserved
Notice to Authors
If you are the author of this work and you have any questions about the information on this page, please use the Contact form to get in touch with us.