Modeling Economic and Environmental Impacts of Policy on Complex Systems
Open Access DepositedA Close Look at System Interdependencies with Dynamic Simulation
In the study of the dynamics of complex socio-technological systems, such as energy networks and industrial supply chains, policies that decide economic growth and environmental sustainability are considered. This dissertation seeks to set a foundation for a dynamic simulation framework to understand the economic and environmental implications of policies to complex systems, particularly with the closed-loop supply chain for electric vehicle battery systems as a representative case. The research is significant because it integrates system dynamics with established analytical tools to explore how policies, technology choices, and stakeholder behaviors interact through nonlinear feedback loops and time delays. Results show that government regulation and market-based incentives are key drivers of recycling economics, greenhouse gas emissions, and material recovery rates. Policies restricting battery disposal, improving second-life battery utilization, or standardizing battery chemistries can significantly shift system-wide costs and environmental impacts. Comparative analyses of different recycling methods (i.e., hydrometallurgical, pyrometallurgical, and direct recycling) reveal how each approach offers varying trade-offs between operational costs, labor intensity, and emissions. Additionally, the research demonstrates the importance of repurposing EV batteries for secondary applications, such as stationary energy storage, to improve resource circularity and create new revenue streams. Beyond the EV battery case study, the dissertation illustrates how holistic, feedback-oriented system modeling is essential for capturing emergent properties in multi-stakeholder supply chains. The methodological contributions, which combine scenario-based simulations, uncertainty modeling, and multi-criteria assessments, provide an adaptable blueprint for policymakers and industry leaders to evaluate policy-driven impacts in other complex sectors. The framework enables informed decision-making that is aligned with broader sustainability and circular economy objectives by quantifying economic and environmental outcomes.
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