Internal Constraints on Nuclear Diplomacy
Open Access DepositedFactionalism, Bureaucracy, and Policy Fragmentation in Iran
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The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), finalized in 2015, represented a historic diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and global powers, placing restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. While much analysis has focused on U.S. policy and international negotiations, less attention has been given to the internal political struggles that have shaped Iran’s approach to the nuclear issue. This study examines the bureaucratic dysfunction, factional rivalries, and competing security visions that influence Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, demonstrating how chaotic domestic dynamics constrain the decision-making process from a granular level. Drawing on Persian-language primary sources, including the memoirs of key negotiators such as Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Seyed Hossein Mousavian of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), this research provides an insider perspective on Iran’s foreign policy apparatus. The study highlights how pragmatist officials in the Rouhani administration (2013–2021) sought to overcome entrenched resistance from hardline factions, navigating institutional inefficiencies and ideological barriers to achieve sanctions relief. Beyond ideological posturing, the study emphasizes the role of self-preservation, power struggles, and bureaucratic inertia in shaping Iran’s diplomacy. By shifting the focus from external negotiations to Iran’s domestic constraints, the study illuminates the security psyche, narratives of vulnerability, and crisis-driven logics that guide Iranian decision-making—dynamics thrown into sharper relief after events such as Operation Midnight Hammer and the regional transformations since October 2023. These insights are essential for understanding the boundaries of Iran’s nuclear decision-making and for anticipating how future crises may recalibrate the discourse of security and survival within the Islamic Republic. Ultimately, situating these internal dynamics within the evolving regional order can help inform ongoing debates about U.S. strategy and the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program amid unprecedented volatility.
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