An A Priori / A Posteriori Formulation for Optimization of Net Zero Energy Portfolio Investments
Open AccessThe world is struggling to cope with climate change and associated risks, current and future. To slow down and reverse this process, the global community has pledged to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, achieve “net zero energy” consumption, and introduce measures to increase resilience to climate change. National commitments translate into policies and legislation, and then it is a turn for organizations to implement these pledges. These measures require investments, in some cases substantial. Budget constraint is a major factor that does not allow pursuing all potential investment alternatives. This requires making decisions based on a priori evaluations of whether a project or activity will deliver desirable outcomes and achieve pre-defined objectives. Large organizations typically have larger budgets than small organizations and therefore may have more opportunities to invest in both small-scale tactical and long-term strategic activities. Their investment decisions are based on evaluation of both the individual projects and portfolios formed from these projects. The aim of the research summarized herein was to investigate, evaluate and compare a priori expert elicitation with a posteriori expert elicitation (Pareto optimal subset) approaches in terms of effectiveness and decision maker preferences, and to develop and evaluate a new hybrid decision-aiding method that utilizes the best aspects of both the a priori and a posteriori preference elicitation approaches. The research tested several hypotheses dealing with the analysis and evaluation of alternative portfolios to optimize multiple returns on energy investments, using the Department of the Army as a test bed. The author engaged multi-objective multicriteria decision analytic methods and expert elicitation in the research to test via systematic analyses whether subject matter experts have (or do not have) identical judgments regarding investments in net zero energy portfolios within a posteriori vs. a priori frameworks. In addition, the author tested whether the quality and consistency of investment project portfolio selections could be improved, in terms of criteria determined by decision makers at the Department of the Army, by combining a posteriori and a priori expert elicitation into a hybrid decision-aiding tool.
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Payosova_gwu_0075A_16231.pdf | 2022-12-11 | Open Access |
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