Cost Estimation Model for U.S. Pressurized Water Reactor Construction through Multiple Regression
Open AccessUnited States (U.S.) construction of Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) has historically experienced unpredictable cost overruns resulting in canceled projects and cost increases over 200%. Commercial nuclear power, which provides more than half of the carbon-free energy production in the U.S., is critical to carbon emission reduction efforts; however, the high and uncertain cost of commercial nuclear reactors limits the viability of new nuclear power sources in the U.S. This research aims to reduce cost uncertainty of future nuclear power reactor construction through the development of a commercial PWR construction costing model. Multiple regression and statistical analyses are used to identify which components of U.S. PWR construction have the highest contribution to overall cost. Additionally, this research analyzes the cost variability of high-cost PWR components over time and analyzes the impact of cost drivers on this cost variability using multiple regression. The data used in these analyses include U.S. and international construction cost data of commercial PWRs and historical U.S. Department of Energy databases that estimate and trend cost for specific PWR components. The multiple regression model developed from this research predicts historical U.S. and international PWR overnight construction costs within a mean absolute percent error of 14%.
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