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Applying a Systems-Based Approach to Crewed Space Architecture Safety Analysis

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Traditional reliability-based hazard analysis applied to human-centric space architectures is unable to account for unsafe interactions between system components in a non-failed state, (Fleming et al., 2012) resulting in incomplete assessment of system hazards and missing approximately 10% of hazards in similar industry case studies (Harkleroad, et al., 2013)(Ishimatsu, et al., 2014). A systems-based hazard analysis technique is required to identify relevant hazards more completely for human space systems and could potentially replace traditional reliability-based methods. The space industry has relied heavily on reliability-based hazard analysis methods to date, leveraging probabilistic models and historical data to drive hazard identification and mitigation development. This approach is well-suited for mature systems with well-understood designs and constituent components from which to derive statistical failure data. However, it falls short when applied to early-stage designs due to a lack of this data, and especially so for the complex sociotechnical systems that are common in the space industry. Identifying a hazard analysis method that can better account for systems in which the constituent components are not yet identified, as well as allow for complex human/system interactions, is potentially of great use in designing safety into space systems early in the design phase. Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) provides one promising framework to accomplish this task, and is applied in a pilot study in this Praxis. The initial findings of this pilot show that STPA is a useful tool in early stage crewed space architecture safety analysis and could allow for faster and more complete hazard analysis as compared to reliability-based tools like FMECAs.

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