Community-Directed Spatial Analysis of Siberian Wildfires
Open AccessIncreasing numbers and intensity of wildfires are a major threat to remote Siberian communities in forest taiga particularly in light of climate change and industrial expansion of informal road networks. Informal roads are undocumented and not maintained by local or regional governments, and include industrial access roads, seismic line clearings as well as trails and paths. This research investigates interactions between wildfires, informal road networks, and other natural factors as observed by Siberian residents and Indigenous Evenki peoples from the Tokma and Vershina Khandy communities in Irkutsk Oblast in southeastern Siberia - an area of intensive hydrocarbon and timber extraction activities. Villagers associate spiritual and economic significance with the taiga undergoing rapid deforestation due to (1) industrial expansion of informal roads and (2) extensive wildfires. Utilizing a combination of interview data, remote sensing, and spatial statistics, this study examines 2016-2017 wildfires surrounding the two villages. It focuses on five causes of wildfire ignitions identified from semi-structured interviews: lightning strikes, logging operations, oil and gas operators, zombie fires, and “outsiders.” Based on these variables, a local indicator of spatial association, the Bivariate Local Moran's I, was used to analyze spatial relationships between wildfire ignitions and their distances to each of the five variables. A positive spatial autocorrelation (p < 0.05) between ignitions and their distances to the variable of oil and gas operations was interpreted from a Moran’s I values of 0.48 surrounding Tokma and 0.85 surrounding Vershina Khandy. The other four variables did not display significant spatial relationship with fire ignitions. This can be explained by the naturally random occurrences of lightning strikes and purposefully dispersed patterns of land use, such as logging, and tourism locations surrounding the two villages. The results of this research can enhance our understanding of the factors influencing changing taiga forest fire patterns and provide new insights into the socio-ecological dynamics affecting Indigenous communities in this region.
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