A Quantitative Risk Analysis Tool for Estimating the Probability of Human Error by Incorporating Component Failure Data from User-Induced Defects in the Development of Complex Electrical Systems

The purpose of this dissertation is to propose a quantitative risk analysis tool that incorporates electrical component failure data into the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs). This new tool is critical to accurately gauge the risk of failure of complex electrical systems, especially ones designed for the space industry. A review of relevant literature showed a significant number of space systems failing before accomplishing their mission, even though they were designed and assembled using relatively modern technologies, reliable components and having undergone thorough testing.This dissertation includes a quantitative empirical analysis conducted on electronic component failure reports describing failures experienced during system integration and testing at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This analysis revealed a surprising proportion of failures where the initial defect was attributed to human error.The proposed risk analysis tool incorporates factors, termed error-producing conditions (EPCs), based on observed trends in electrical component failures to produce a revised HEP that can trigger risk mitigation actions more effectively based on the presence of component categories or other hazardous conditions that have a history of failure due to human error. In other methods used in various industrial settings, these factors are chosen (in terms of selection and proportioning) at the discretion of an assessor or a team of subject matter experts (SME), and are therefore subject to the differing experiences and potential bias. This proposed risk analysis tool is demonstrated with an example comparing the original HEART method and the proposed modified technique.

Author

• Majewicz, Peter John

Language

• en

Keyword

• Electrical Failure Mechanisms
• Systems Engineering
• Human Reliability Assessment
• Human Error Probability
• Risk Management

Date created

• 2017

Type of Work

• Dissertation

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• Systems Engineering

Degree

• Ph.D.

Advisor

• Olson, Bill A
• Blessner, Paul L

Committee Member(s)

• Sarkani, Shahram
• Mazzuchi, Thomas A
• Murphree, E L

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/2227mp83c