In Search of a Prime Mover: An Investigation into the Relationship Between Technological Change and Shifts in the Fielded Military Capabilities of States

Influential areas of international relations scholarship are predicated upon the notion that sizeable and abrupt shifts in the fielded military capabilities of states regularly transpire and are of consequence for international politics. Without what can be characterized as a prime mover to drive such shifts in the fielded military capabilities of states, variance in threat perceptions would lack a material basis. This dissertation project investigates whether technological change is a suitable candidate for the role of a prime mover driving sizeable and abrupt shifts in fielded military capabilities. In this dissertation, I develop an analytical framework that examines both monadic and dyadic mechanisms through which technological change can affect the fielded military capabilities of states. I then test whether the analytical framework accords with the empirical record through case studies focusing on advances in submarine technology in the ca. 1800-1945 timeframe and advances in uncrewed aircraft technology in the ca. 1910-2020 timeframe. I find that the effects of technological change tend to be considerably lagged and that states have considerable scope for adopting, countering, and offsetting new technologies to blunt if not negate the effects of technological change on their military standing. This dissertation’s findings suggest that the field of international relations remains in search of a prime mover driving sizeable and abrupt shifts in fielded military capabilities at a time of growing interest in and concern about the implications of intensifying military-technological competition.

Author

• Pasandideh Gholamali, Shahryar

Language

• English

Keyword

• military power
• military technology
• offense-defense balance
• military innovation
• technological change

Date created

• 2024

Type of Work

• Dissertation

License

• All rights reserved

Rights statement

• In Copyright

GW Unit

• Political Science

Degree

• Ph.D.

Advisor

• Glaser, Charles

Committee Member(s)

• Mochizuki, Mike
• Downes, Alexander

Persistent URL

•  https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/etd/0k225c119