The Evaluation of Uncertainty in the Early Phases of Project Management
Open Access DepositedThis praxis explored project schedule uncertainty and developed a framework to prioritize risk and opportunity management. A robust literature review was performed to explore terms lacking industry-standard definitions like ambiguity, uncertainty, risk, and opportunity. The praxis framework took inspiration from Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods to reimagine network diagrams, which was not found to be widely applied in the project management literature review. It coupled the deterministic (i.e., DMDU) analysis with a statistical analysis (i.e., Program Evaluation Review Technique [PERT]) to provide schedule bookends, and it developed a proof-of-concept computational tool to facilitate the analysis. The praxis framework was tested using a case study network diagram. The analysis of the statistical and deterministic information resulted in a prioritized activity list that could be used by a practitioner, in conjunction with project information, to prioritize risk management activities. This is especially helpful in cases where project schedule and budget limitations exist. The praxis framework does not promote a specific type of risk analysis
however, it helps risk management by providing recommendations to link the praxis framework results and risk analysis and discusses best practices for developing measurable risks.
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