Abstract of ThesisA Critical Evaluation of Empirical Non-linear Control System and System Dynamics Modeling Theories for Mitigating Risks Arising From Bullwhip EffectBullwhip effect is a dysfunctional phenomenon in supply chains. It occurs primarily because of disruptions and delays in...
System design at the component level seeks to construct a design trade space of alternate solutions comprising mapping(s) of system function(s) to physical hardware or software product components. The design space is analyzed to determine a near-optimal next-level allocated architecture solution...
Cyber-attackers exploit people, processes, and technologies to steal high-value organizational data. The corresponding attacks are complex, cost organizations millions of dollars to resolve, and require rapid-response, architecture-based mitigation. Consequently, Cybersecurity strategies that...
This study is inspired by the current tendencies of technological changes. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that impact the generation of change requirements, methods of measuring those changes and the impact of those changes on the evolution of a system. Although many...
This research focused on improving the requirements elicitation phase by applying a multi-attribute approach to verify and confirm that a set of proposed requirements fulfill their objectives and constraints. A cornerstone of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)—absolute measurement, which is...
Transportation infrastructure connects people and businesses with each other and the rest of the world. It is vital to economy and social well-being of people. Unfortunately, due to system age and lack of maintenance and modernization activities, the condition of the transportation infrastructure...
Team collaboration and decision making have a significant role in the overall performance of complex System of Systems (SoS). Inefficient decisions can result in significant extra cost and reduction in the overall team performance within the organizations. Therefore, the early and effective...
During the system-elements’ requirement-based test approach (RBT&E;), it is difficult for both Systems Engineering (SE) and Test and Evaluation (T&E;) communities to objectively identify the corresponding system-of-interest (SOI) capability (or ability to achieve requirements throughout its...
Decision makers utilize qualitative and quantitative metrics/measurements to assess system development and to identify technical and programmatic risks. As systems increase in complexity and the number of interfaces increase, it is vital to develop a comprehensive view of the system development...
The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is the primary construction agent for the Department of Defense (DoD). Each year the DoD invests billions of dollars in military construction (MILCON) projects in support of the U.S. armed forces missions all over the world. The USACE contracts...
The requirement engineering phase is widely considered an essential part of the system engineering process. As system complexity increases, system engineers will require tools dealing with the challenges complexity introduces. The ability to recognize, capture, and analyze these system...
Human error remains the highest symptomatic cause of system failure across multiple domains. Technology failure has seen a significant rate decrease through analyses and design changes, but human error causal factors have not experienced the same level of improvement. Designers and developers...
Studies demonstrate that differences in how product development organizations and product realization organizations interpret requirements can lead to poor quality outcomes. Other research shows that, in comparison to communicating requirements inside an organization, communicating requirements...
Spare parts models have typically focused on the number of spares physically required to maintain system availability and optimize replacement policies, such as block or age replacement and variants thereof. In an era where additive manufacturing (AM), or 3D printing, as it is popularly known,...
Software vulnerabilities that enable well-known exploit techniques for committing computer crimes are preventable, but they continue to be present in releases. When Blackhats (i.e., malicious researchers) discover these vulnerabilities they oftentimes release corresponding exploit software and...
Immature systems can be plagued by high costs, high risks, and schedule delays. System maturity models are utilized to quantitatively analyze a system’s readiness to indicate whether the system is prepared to proceed to the next acquisition phase during development. Most system maturity models...
The lack of comprehensive software obsolescence risk forecasting and assessment methodologies presents a challenge to managing overall system obsolescence risk. This is especially the case for systems with a high utilization of commercial electronic components or software applications with a long...
Government oversight exists to provide the government with the information it needs to evaluate the cost, schedule, and performance of contractors building systems on the government’s behalf. The activities required for oversight, while necessary, add additional costs to a program. Stakeholders...
Insider threats are one of the most damaging threats to modern systems. The ubiquity of cybersecurity problems related to insider threats promoted various solutions over the years. However, effective solutions are undermined by mathematical algorithms and host-based event driven techniques that...
Redundant outputs from multiple positioning systems are not typically fused together on moving vehicles, resulting in unrealized opportunities in minimizing any combined position error and uncertainty. Satellite navigation is commonly used in timing and positioning applications, and combined with...
The human brain has been modeled using the cognitive cycle, a continuous loop of detection, interpretation, and action which guides decision-making and task performance. In human-driven queues, these elements can affect queuing performance. However, increasing the number of servers is the...
Demand response (DR) is considered one of the most reliable and cost-effective solutions for smoothing the electric demand curve of systems under stress. DR programs encourage customers to make changes in power consumption habits in response to electricity price incentives. A well designed...
This research identifies the causes of engineering change propagation during the development and production phases of the product lifecycle using a statistical method applied to large engineering change data sets from the locomotive and mining vehicle industries. Little research has been...
This paper presents the integration of an intelligent decision support model (IDSM) with a cognitive architecture that controls an autonomous non-deterministic safety-critical system. The IDSM will integrate multi-criteria, decision-making tools via intelligent technologies such as expert...
A product is recalled when it is deemed to pose a public safety hazard. As systems become more complex, identifying what factors influence recalls becomes increasingly important for engineering managers and systems engineers. With this in mind, this research endeavor highlights a novel safety...
The cost of Department of Defense (DoD) weapon systems acquisitions has risen at an alarming rate of 46% since the 1960s, according to third-party investigations. Despite considerable DoD efforts to reduce cost growth, historical review demonstrates a pattern of underestimation of weapon systems...
The operations and maintenance (O&M;) of the electric smart meter (ESM) systems constitute the most expensive systems engineering lifecycle phase, where resources drive costs up. Customer service calls activities are one of the cost items that are directly linked to the success of smart meter...
A multi-objective energy efficient and flexible data center design has been of interest for all in the industry that are familiar with data center costs. A survey of 416 CIO's conducted by the CIO Data center Strategies Survey, suggested that the data center operating costs are steady at 25% of...
The purpose of this study was to propose an effective knowledge elicitation method and representation scheme that empowers humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR) analysts and experts to create analytic models without the aid of data scientists and methodologists while addressing the...
Systems are increasing in size and becoming more complex, an ongoing trend for decades. Systems monitoring and control is a vital element of systems engineering that provides information on the behavior patterns of the system. This information has various purposes, including, but not limited to,...
Abstract of Dissertation Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Engagement in Tradeoff Studies Using Group Decision Making Techniques:Application to Spaceflight Today’s complex systems, and systems of systems, must accommodate the needs of large numbers of heterogeneous stakeholders, and require a...
The majority of aviation accidents are caused by human error. Augmentedcognition and automation systems enhance pilot performance by evaluatingsystem limitations and flight precision and performance. This study examines thehuman-machine interface in cockpit design using the tenets of...
Cloud computing service providers are currently viewed as innovative solutions to the global need for massive data systems because of their superior flexibility, scalability, and cost benefits. Cloud computing enabled by virtualized services is still constrained, however, by the capacities of the...
This dissertation presents a formal game-theoretic belief learning approach to model criminology’s Routine Activity Theory (RAT). RAT states that for a crime to occur a motivated offender (criminal) and a desirable target (victim) must meet in space and time without the presence of capable...
Constraints on Department of Defense funding make it imperative that all funds expended to upgrade and modernize aging weapon systems provide the biggest payoff. Using the US Air Forces' Minuteman III (MM III) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) as an example, this paper will outline an...
The research presented in this dissertation investigates the relationship between critical technologies and technology maturity assessments at a key decision point in the product development life cycle. This study utilizes statistical methods for assessing technology maturity at a key decision...
The purpose of this dissertation is to propose a quantitative risk analysis tool that incorporates electrical component failure data into the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs). This new tool is critical to accurately gauge the...
Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are systems composed of distributed sensors, physical actuators and controlling computers that are interconnected through a computer network. Notable examples include: electric utility “smart grids” that can sense and optimize power distribution, transportation...
Outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as influenza pandemics, can have significant impacts on interdependent economic sectors, and therefore lead to major economic losses. Based on findings from the 2009 A H1N1 influenza pandemic in the National Capital Region (NCR), this research work presents...
An effective framework does not currently exist with which to assess the viability of commercializing photovoltaic (PV) power generation in the US energy market. Adopting a new technology, such as utility-scale PV power generation, requires a commercialization assessment framework. The framework...
This paper examines the challenge of understanding uncertainty associated with military measures of effectiveness given incomplete and often imperfect information. With the migration towards a network-centric capability, the ability to represent, quantify, and aggregate uncertainty of information...
As a result of the reuse of legacy systems by the Department of Defense (DoD), DoD programs often experience overruns and technical difficulties. With the constriction of DoD budgets, reuse of legacy systems is frequently touted as the solution to cost, efficiency, and time to delivery problems;...
Often, multiple software products exist on the same server and vulnerability in one product compromises the entire system. It is imperative then, to perform a security risk assessment when selecting the software products that will become part of a larger system. Having a quantitative security...
Market dynamics, technology spin-cycles, and affordability pressures are shaping development demands for medical devices.Model-based development offers a remedy for these pressures, with demonstrated ability to mitigate the complexity introduced. This dissertation will examine the program...
Convective weather and other constraints create uncertainty in air transportation, leading to costly delays. A Ground Delay Program (GDP) is a strategy to mitigate these effects. Systematic decision support can increase GDP efficacy, reduce delays, and minimize direct operating costs. In this...
Enterprise architecture frameworks (EAFs) have been used to plan and manage large-scale enterprise deployments for more than four decades. EAFs are important tools used by systems engineers and are integral to characterize enterprise information architectures. They are increasingly being used as...
The U.S. healthcare system is the largest and most complex system worldwide. Many aspects of it necessitate major reforming to improve the quality of care and efficiency, reduce redundancies, and to restructure the existing cost structure. The Health Information Exchange (HIE) was initiated in...
This study pushes systems engineering of aging aircraft beyond the boundaries of empirical and deterministic modeling by making a sharp break with the traditional laboratory-derived corrosion prediction algorithms that have shrouded real-world failures of aircraft structure. At the heart of this...
Due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and its effect on global climates, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposes a Clean Power Plan (CPP) mandating CO2 reductions which will likely force the early retirement of inefficient, aging power plants. Consequentially,...
Over the last several decades the technology revolution has compounded system complexity with the integration of multi-spectral sensors and interactive command and control systems. These complexities create additional challenges for requirement developers to produce an encompassing set of...
This research was conducted to evaluate and quantify the impacts complexity has on schedule based on errors created by organizational and system dependencies that occur during software integration testing. The combination of individually developed and managed systems and their interdependencies...
This dissertation assesses the current state of systems data management, particularly of point cloud data from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) reports, and proposes a full multi-dimensional data management system using custom software. The volume of collected point cloud data is growing...
In a 2007 memorandum, John Young, Under Secretary of Defense at that time, mandated the use of “competitive prototyping” strategies prior to the System Design and Development phase (Young, 2007). Department of Defense Instruction 5000.02 also includes considerations for prototyping in the...
New methodologies to model, evaluate, and analyze the resilience of system architectures at the conceptual design level may support needs evaluations, policy development, and the study of social decisions. The primary objective of this research was to develop a generalized resilience analysis...
During the last decade, many US government research and development (R&D;) centers adopted some type of knowledge management (KM) program, either as a formal requirement or as part of a KM strategy to drive efficiency, improve productivity, and remain competitive. Many of these organizations...
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has been plagued by poorly managed disasters throughout its history. As the Agency has evolved, it has adopted the use of better technology to enhance its missions. Hurricane Sandy represented a shift in technology adoption and community engagement...
Systems engineering measurements provide the decision maker a method to effectively manage uncertainty throughout the systems engineering lifecycle including entrance into key project milestones. Premature transition through project milestones or decision gates is likely to lead to cost and...
As the systems engineering realm becomes ever more dynamic, the need for a more flexible and rapid moving process is required. Systems engineering, in relation to software development, has successfully adopted agile principles to improve efficiency. However, systems engineering involving hardware...
Risk identification is the most important step in the risk management process because risks that are unidentified are implicitly assumed and unmanaged. Projects face the challenge of increasing complexity and uncertainty. Risk management has taken advantage of powerful quantitative tools to...
Software reliability growth models (SRGMs) provide a framework to analyze software failures by using past failure data to predict future software reliability or to estimate current software reliability. Most current models use a classical approach to infer parameters and have shown limitations in...
The traditional systems engineering (TSE) technical development process model (TDPM) constituent system (CS) suitability conjecture is the unproven belief within the system engineering (SE) and system of systems (SoS) communities that TSE TDPMs are suitable in prescribing the technical...
Department of Defense (DoD) leadership released the Better Buying Power initiatives to help DoD do more with less. A key tenet of these initiatives is to increase small business roles in DoD contracting opportunities. Reasons for increasing small business opportunities include promoting...
Identifying the best design configuration for a disaster-response team is important for minimizing total operation time and reducing the human cost of natural and manmade disasters. This research presents a simulation system that is able to optimally design a disaster-response team and evaluate...
Different classes of problems warrant different classes of solutions. There is no agreed set of unified principles and models to support systems engineering use over a wide range of domains. Nor is there a set of consistent terminology and definitions. These two deficiencies impede the adoption...
Increasing complexity in modern systems, as well as cost and schedule constraints, require a new paradigm of system engineering to fulfill stakeholder needs. Challenges facing efficient trade studies include poor tool interoperability, lack of simulation coordination (design parameters) and...
This research investigates the presence of cognitive biases in the risk management processes utilized at NASA, Department of Defense, and within the broader aerospace sector. A widely applied risk management tool in the aerospace sector is the risk matrix. Risk matrices were used in practice...
There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches and models in a cost effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. In addition, extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment...
This dissertation presents a dynamic resource allocation approach for business processes as an operation systems improvement approach. The approach aims to increase the utilization of resources and decrease the risk of the idle time, excessive utilization or neglected skills, which will reflect...
As systems become more complex the probability increases that they will exhibit emergent behavior that could lead to system failures or widespread and prolonged service interruptions. This research presents findings on the behavior of complex systems after they experience disruptive events that...
Since September 2001, the Department of Defense (DOD) has focused a lot of attention on its capabilities to fight and prevail in multiple, simultaneous global conflicts. To successfully meet the demands of such a mission, a consistently responsive Defense Ammunition Industrial Base (DAIB) that...
Across the world, energy policies are promoting distributed generation systems in order to (1)improve the resilience of the energy infrastructure, (2) to mitigate the incidence of CO2 inducedclimate change, and (3) to improve cost effectiveness. When these three objectives are combined,a strong...
Cyber-attacks have escalated, causing decision makers to assess the trade-offs required to protect their organizations from such attacks. The use of benchmarking techniques to reduce cyber security risks would allow decision makers to use both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Systems...
There has been extensive research on how new ideas and technologies are accepted in society. This has resulted in the creation of many models that are used to discover and assess the contributing factors. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) is one that is a widely accepted model. This model...
Although a recent audit report from the U.S. Department of Transportation shows declining flight delays over the last decade, scheduled U.S, passenger airlines still accrued 92 million system delay minutes that were estimated to result in $7.2 billion in direct aircraft operating costs in 2012....
ABSTRACT NASA has had a decades-long problem with cost growth during the development of space science missions. Numerous agency-sponsored studies have produced average mission level development cost growths ranging from 23 to 77%. A new study of 26 historical NASA science instrument set...
Ever since the release of the Brundtland Report by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED, 1987), the sustainable development (SD) concept has been gaining more and more traction from a majority of research disciplines in the recent two decades. For instance, the impact of...
As engineering projects grow in complexity, estimating the required engineering effort during the development phase of a project has become more art than science. Predictions of required engineering effort are based on empirical models fitted to historical data with additional subjective factors,...
Contemporary system maturity assessment approaches have failed to provide robust quantitative system evaluations resulting in increased program costs and developmental risks. Standard assessment metrics, such as Technology Readiness Levels (TRL), do not sufficiently evaluate increasingly complex...
Tracking maneuvering targets is an important but difficult problem. This problem occurs when tracking maneuvering boats or even people wandering around. If the target motion is linear and the measurement errors are Gaussian, then a Kalman filter provides the optimal estimates. However, since...
A systems engineer must identify effective techniques for improving the convergence of a System of Systems (SoS). The effectiveness of the identified techniques needs to be quantified so that the stakeholders may make informed cost benefit decisions. Exploring outer worlds, defending from...
With the rapid increase of smartphones and tablets, security concerns have also been on the rise. Traditionally, Information Technology (IT) departments set up devices, apply security, and monitor them. Such approaches do not apply to today’s mobile devices due to a phenomenon called Bring Your...
“The rise of systems of systems (SoS), increasingly prevalent fiscal constraints, and the continued difficulty for the armed services to deliver interoperable solutions for the SoS environment, highlights the need for a new approach that addresses end-to-end functionality, prioritized...
Previous research on knowledge management have predominantly focused on either the development of knowledge management tools such as a knowledge repository or abstract theoretical understanding of knowledge management. These studies have not specifically addressed how to apply knowledge...
The objective of this study is to demonstrate the application of the bootstrapping M-estimator (a robust Analysis of Variance, ANOVA) to test the null hypotheses of means equality among the cost and schedule performance of the three project delivery systems (PDS). A statistical planned contrast...
Many routine tasks require an agent to perform a series of sequential actions, either to move to a desired end state or to perform a task of indefinite duration as efficiently as possible, and almost every task requires the consideration of multiple objectives, which are frequently in conflict...
This research was motivated by the need for functional change of complex systems in post-production. Through an initial empirical study, this research found pathways to functional change with minimal change to form; thus avoiding the high risk of material change propagation that has been a...